Variance is evil.
In fact I might start calling it deviation, that sounds more accurate. I keep a spreadsheet that basically tracks my bankroll variance (I also keep key notes/hands in the spreadsheet). I’ve been keeping the stats since 12/6/2007, so I currently have just over 3 months of data. Yes I know I have a problem. 
Ultimately I think the information will be useful though. For instance, looking at the info after this weekend, I just had my second largest decrease in my bankroll yesterday. After playing well at 3 different sessions over the weekend, I thought I’d give it one more go Sunday night. Now keep in mind, my bankroll is very small, but when I look at the percentages, it’s scary. In my last session of the weekend, I lost 22.61% of my bankroll, effectively erasing the positive gains of the previous 3 sessions (imagine if my bankroll was $100,000). In my 2 largest losses, the other being 24.52%, I ended up all in. Yesterday, I flopped top two pair with A-Q, and lost to three 5’s. Previously I ended up all in with three Jacks only to get beat by a full house. What have I learned? This is going to happen. Maybe I can try to make better reads, but at .o1/.o2 NL I would have probably ended up all in no matter how long I thought about it, because the range of hands most people play and value is huge at this level. People end up all in with top pair all the time. I also learned that because of Deviation, quit while you’re ahead and try again another day, because variance is evil and it will get you if you push it. OK, that second point is probably just me being stupid, but sometimes when I look at my spreadsheet I wonder if there is some truth in it?
February 18th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
There should be less variance in 1,000 hands than 100 hands. Therefore, playing more hands, the variance works itself out. Play 2-4 tables.
February 18th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
I’ve been thinking of playing 2 tables. My bankroll is just over 650 big blinds though, so it makes me a bit nervous. My goal was to make it to 1000 big blinds then play 2 tables. Every time I get close though, that one hand knocks me down a notch.
February 19th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Most people say you should have 2,000bb. I believe in 4,500-5,000bb for NL (300bb for limit). At lower stakes though, you can do with less. For example, if I went busto, I would load $50 or $100 and play 10NL, which would be 500-1,000bb. I just get too bored playing 1 table, but it is different for everyone. The key is can you focus as much on specific players when playing > 1 table. The answer is no. But at low stakes where showdown is key, you tend to play your cards more than the opponent. That being the case, I prefer to see more hands so those playable hands come sooner. You should watch me play 12 tables one time. t seems like I get AK every other hand.
February 19th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Assume you play 12 tables seeing 80 hands/hour/table. That is 960 hands in 1 hour, This translates into 56 pocket pairs, 6 sets, AA-4 times, KK 4 times, QQ 4 times, AK 12 times, AQ 12 times, etc… - All in one hour. Wow, those stats even amaze me. Cant wait to play again!!
February 19th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Haha, yeah, I think I’m going to play some tonight. I played last night, but just a freeroll, might play cash tonight, we’ll see.
So I’m not totally mistaken to have a goal of 1,000 big blinds at .01/.02 NL before I start playing multiple tables?
February 19th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
That’s a set every 10 minutes, AA AND KK AND QQ every 15 minutes. A pocket pair almost every minute. AK every 5 minutes, AQ every 5 minutes. Wow!! I should be making more money.
February 19th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
So I’m not totally mistaken to have a goal of 1,000 big blinds at .01/.02 NL before I start playing multiple tables?
I personally do not think it matters. Your variance can increase with the number of tables I suppose in the short run, but variance decreases the more hands in your sample. The results should regress toward the mean.
February 22nd, 2008 at 7:53 am
Variance is something that every poker player should learn to live with :(! But make big samples and hold a good bankrollmanagement will take all the fear out of your A game
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