Played online at Pokerstars last night. One hand had me really thinking at one point. I’m in the small blind with Q
8 and limp in with 3 other players. The flop comes Q
5
8
giving me two pair. I value bet $0.06 and get two callers. Turn comes a 8 giving me a full house, eights full of queens. Not expecting to make much money with a full house, I value bet $0.12 hoping one of two players might call, but both call. The river is the A and I bet $0.24, I get raised to $0.48 and the other player folds. So do I call or re-raise?
I just called, and my opponent showed me J 8 giving him three eights and I took it down. I’m guessing most people would answer that they would have re-raised, and that was my initial thought also. I looked at the line taken so far. Everyone limped pre-flop, the only raise on my bets came after an Ace on the river. I didn’t think it was unreasonable to think my opponent might have limped with A-8 giving them a bigger full house. At this level limping with A-8 is about the norm. On the flip side people will call or raise with high card or top pair on a regular basis too, they’re just so loose / aggressive at micro stakes. After two calls then a raise, I thought the Ace might have actually helped my opponent, but I probably should have been thinking it just gave him top pair or top two pair or some crap like that.
Current Bankroll: $49.37 Previous: $46.34 Started with: $2.00
2 Comments
Jimmy!! This is an obvious shove. Just calling here is out of the question. If he has A8, oh well, no big deal. Why? There are 2 8s on the board and you have one and there is one A on the board. meaning there are only 3 left. So how many combos of A8 are there remaining. Answer: 3. But there are 3 combos of 55, 3 combos of 85, 3 remaining combos of Q8, and all the other hands with an 8. The only hands you are worried about are A8 and QQ and AA. He would have raised AA and QQ preflop so that’s out. You are leaving way too much money on the table thinking this way. It’s OK to stack-off to A8, because you will make so much more on the hands that he doesn’t have A8, since you know he’s stacking off with every 8 in his range + 55. When you have an equity advantage this large, you need to be willing to get the money in. I made a ridiculous bluff the other night that left me very much pot committed when he shoved. I had to call because even though I knew I was toast, I made my bluff so large that my overcards still had equity against his range for calling off my remaining stack ($7). I was not excited about calling and knew I would look like a fool when he saw my hand, but folding would have been a worse play since the pot was so large (thanks to my stupidity). Anyway, poker has a gamble element to it. and when you have an edge, you need to push that edge. What hands is he going to fold to an all-in with an 8? none. So you have to be OK wth running into an occasional bigger monster hand when you have a monster hand - and you did have a monster hand. Let’s do a little math. I don’t know how much you guys had remaining in your stacks. But let’s say you each had another $1.50. Let’s say you are a favorite to win the hand 90% of the time. Betting the remaining $1.50 is worth $1.35 to you ($1.50 X 90% = $1.35. So in this example, you cost yourself $1.35 by not betting. Because if you are a 90% favorite (you were even more of a favorite), and you play it out 10 times, then you will win the remaining $1.50 9 times ($13.50) and lose once (-$1.50). Does that sound like an OK risk? This means you have to be willing to lose to A8 because it’s costing you more money to avoid A8. Going back to my example, if it costs $1.35 to not push all-in and it costs $1.50 to get stacked by A8, then you still have to push all in because you lose $1.35 every time you don’t shove and lose $1.50 only the rare times he has A8. See how often you are losing $1.35 here by not betting? See how rarely you are losing $1.50 here by betting? Hope this helps. This was a great question to ask because you obviously weren’t thinking along these lines during your hand and I think if you let this sink in, it will improve your game. Sorry for sounding harsh, but it’s tough love
Well it seems obvious when you put it like that. Thanks for the input. Live and learn, right!?
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